The days are getting cooler, every coffee shop is starting to pummel you with pumpkin spice, and wives across the land are dusting off the fall decorations. That can only mean one thing, the NFL is nearly upon. Much like those time honored fall traditions, the start of the NFL season also brings us gambling. Mainly making picks on who we think is going to win a NFL game each week.

The season kicks off Thursday, September 5th with an AFC Championship rematch when the Baltimore Ravens visit the Kansas City Chiefs. More on that game in a minute.

Over the next 18 weeks I’ll be using this space to breakdown which teams I’ll be taking and avoiding in my survivor picks pool.

For those of you that don’t know, a NFL survivor pool consists of picking one team you think will win each week. With the caveat that you can only pick a team once. That means you can’t ride a powerhouse to victory. At some point you may just find yourself putting your hopes on the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Why should you take my analysis? That’s a good question. I don’t have hours upon hours of analysis. With two young kids, my NFL watching these days is basically catching Red Zone between negotiating treaties involving Barbies.

I also can’t say I’ve successfully navigated my survivor pools the last couple years. At least one of those years resulted in a week 1 buyback.

But I do have a website and some time each week to break down the teams I believe have a chance to win. You can use that information however you like. Whether it’s riding to victory or fading me. The latter may have a better chance at victory.

Let’s get started.

Games To Avoid

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs

Line: Chiefs -3

The rematch of the AFC Championship game. The Chiefs are getting a lot of love for this game in CBS Pick ’em pools at 77% of picks. Which seems like a vote of confidence from the general public. People seem to forget that was a closely contested AFC Championship game and could have easily been tied up had L’Jarius Sneed not forced a game saving fumble on Zay Flowers as he dove for the endzone. The Ravens will be out for revenge, they added Derrick Henry, and it is the first game of the season. On the other hand, I have no desire to pick against Patrick Mahomes at home. Anything could happen in this game. I want no part of it. Save these two teams when they go against some cupcakes later in the season.

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles

Line: Eagles -2.5

Are we getting the Packers that ended last season on a tear? Are we getting the Eagles that ended ended last season on a 1-5 collapse before getting trounced by the Buccaneers 32-9 in the first round. I’m going to give these two teams a week to reveal their identity. Plus, I at least want to make it to Sunday with some hope left.

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants

Line: Vikings -1.5

The New York Giants are set to be a train wreck this season. They were done no favors in Hard Knocks: Offseason which made their front office very clippable on social media as they lost Saquan Barkley to the rival Philadelphia Eagles. Meanwhile the Vikings are starting Sam Darnold at quarterback. No thank you.

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions

Line: Lions -3.5

The Lions are a hot pick after making a run all the way to the NFC Conference Championship game. They got there by beating Matthew Stafford and the Rams at home in the first playoff game in Detroit in 30 years. The Rams were another team that ended last season on a run. I’m not betting my entry on Matthew Stafford not coming back to Detroit fired up in week 1. Though Detroit should win this game.

Games to Consider

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

Line: Saints -4

The Panthers were really bad in 2023. They’re still probably going to be really bad in 2024. You can probably make a pretty good run in survivor pools in 2024 by picking against the Panthers all year. (Feel free to quote this when the Panthers go on an unprecedented Super Bowl run this year.) At least until they hit their second games against division foes. This could be a good game to bank a Saints win and keep a powerhouse pick available for later in the season.

What scares me…

I’m not entirely convinced I know who the Saints are. Their offensive line and Derek Carr scare me just a little.

Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills

Line: Bills -6.5

The Buffalo Bills opened at 7 point favorites in this game. Arizona may get a better start to their season with Kyler Murray teaming up with rookie receiver Marvin Harrison, Jr. I’m not sure that’s enough to overcome what should be a solid Buffalo squad. The Bills and Josh Allen enter the season looking to finally get over that Kansas City shaped hump that has blocked them the last few season and will want a hot start.

What scares me…

Buffalo is without a clear number 1 at receiver after trading Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans. Maybe it was disfunction and they’ll be better. Maybe Allen will regress without a key weapon. 🤷‍♂️

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals

Line: Bengals -7.5

The New England Patriots are starting their first season sans Bill Belichick and they’re shaping up to be bad. They’re right on that Carolina Panthers level going into the season but with less optimism at Quarterback. At least in Carolina Bryce Young could have a better year 2. New England is going to ride with Jacoby Brissett and Drake Maye. Meanwhile Joe Burrow is healthy and the Bengals won 9 games in a tough AFC North last year with Jake Browning filling in.

What scares me…

The Bengals are dragging their feet in paying Ja’marr Chase and he may not be available for this game. Update: He did return to practice.

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Line: Buccaneers -3

The Commanders are under new ownership and they have a new quarterback. Jayden Daniels should be fun to watch. The Buccaneers meanwhile brought back Baker Mayfield after he helped lead them to a playoff win and a tie game going into the 4th quarter against the Lions in Detroit with a chance to go to the NFC Championship game. Still the Bucs are decent favorites at home and against a rookie QB.

What scares me

The aforementioned rookie QB and Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels.

The Verdict

I’m going with the Cincinnati Bengals to take care of business at home against the Patriots. Burrow is healthy and the Patriots should be bad. We’re just trying to get out of week 1 alive here so we can get a better read on the teams for the rest of the season.