According to Pardon My Take the last time the largest favorites for week 1 and week 2 both lost was in 1980. That stat can now be updated to 2024 as the largest week 2 favorites, the Baltimore Ravens, lost at home to the Las Vegas Raiders. Even after having a late 10 point lead.

And well I perfectly predicted both those. If you faded me you’ve done well so far this season. I had a version of last week’s post picking the Chargers with a Harbaugh gif and everything. I talked myself into taking what I thought was the better team.

Hopefully you faded me and still have a chance in your leagues. I’m hanging on by a thread to my last entry (Bears, Chargers). Let’s get into week 3.

Games to Avoid

Chicago Bears +1.5 at Indianapolis Colts -1.5
The Bears defense is solid. If Caleb Willians had time in the pocket to throw passes this team might be pretty good. They haven’t had that. The Bears defense is to salty for me to pick Indy in this one.

Fun fact: CBS Sportsline has the projected score at 24-24. The computers can’t even decide this one.

Houston Texans -2 at Minnesota Vikings +2
The Vikings with Sam Darnold are good? I didn’t see that one coming. Much like San Francisco didn’t see that 97-yard bomb to Justin Jefferson coming. The Texans are also 2-0 and looking pretty solid in Stroud’s sophomore year. I’m still a little surprised the Vikings are dogs at home in this one.

Green Bay Packers +1.5 at Tennessee Titans -1.5
The Packers are without their starting quarterback in Jordan Love. They still went and won their home opener by pounding the Colts with 53 rushing attempts to 14 passes. Will Levis and the Titans on the other hand are finding new ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory each week. I still don’t want to take Malik Willis on the road or Will Levis to not brain fart a game away.

Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 at Atlanta Falcons +3.5
The Chiefs are 2-0. They’re also very close to being 0-2. Of course the reason they’re so successful is finding ways to take advantage when other teams commit a miscue. The Atlanta Falcons on the other hand are a Saquan Barkley catch away from being 0-2. That said I kind of like the Falcons as a sneaky upset pick at home this week. Not enough to pick against the Chiefs in a survivor pool.

Games to Consider

Denver Broncos +6.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5
Baker Mayfield has the Bucs riding high at a surprising 2-0 after going in and grinding out a win in Detroit. The Denver Broncos definitely seam to still be rebuilding and Bo Nix hasn’t hit his stride at this point by any means. I’m going Bucs in this one.

Confidence: 👨‍🍳👨‍🍳👨‍🍳👨‍🍳 / 5 Bakers

Carolina Panthers +5 at Las Vegas Raiders -5
The Panthers are already turning to Andy Dalton. 1 season and 2 games into drafting Bryce Young number 1 overall. That’s not a good sign. The Raider just went in and took down Baltimore at home. Davonte Adams is making great catches with Garnder Minshew throwing him the ball. Smash the Raiders in this one.

Confidence: 🧑🏻‍🦰🧑🏻‍🦰🧑🏻‍🦰🧑🏻‍🦰🧑🏻‍🦰 / 5 Andy Daltons

Washington Commanders -7.5 at Cincinnati Bengals +7.5
The Bengals are 0-2. The Commanders are 1-1. The Bengals lost to the Chiefs on a last second field goal that was only made possible by a pass interference call (and a Ja’marr Chase brain fart to throw a fit and get a penalty earlier in the game). The Commanders meanwhile managed to win on 7 field goals while giving up 3 touchdowns to the Giants. The Giants converted 0 extra points because their kicker went down on the opening kickoff. Plus, the heaviest favorite can’t lose 3 weeks in a row to the start the season. Right? RIGHT?

Confidence: 🐯🐯🐯/5 Tigers (I’ve been burnt on the favorite thing too much.)

Miami Dolphins +4.5 at Seattle Seahawks -4.5
The Dolphins put Tua Tagovailoa on the injured reserve after he suffered a concussion on Thursday Night Football. That means they’re turning to (checks notes) Skylar Thompson this Sunday in Seattle. The Seahawks are 2-0 and look solid despite needing overtime to beat the Patriots. The Patriots seem plucky though. Give me Seattle at home against a Skylar all day.

Confidence: 🐬🐬🐬🐬/ 5 Injured Dolphins

My Pick

I’ll be going with the Las Vegas Raiders this week. Since I couldn’t beat them last week, I might as well go with them this week. Plus I get to fade the Panthers. Which I should have done since week one.