I’m on whatever the opposite of a heater is. Through 3 weeks, I’ve made 3 picks all on heavy favorites and they have all lost. At this point we’re just going to see if I can keep the perfect record going.

Last week was particularly bad as the teams I liked (Bucs, Raiders, Bengals, and Seahawks) went 1-3. Ouch.

Games to Avoid

Cincinnati Bengals -4 at Carolina Panthers
I started week 1 going with he Bengals at home against the Patriots. They lost. I liked the Bengals last week against the Commanders. They also lost. I’ve pitched just fading the Panthers every week and did that in week 3. They won. I know nothing about these teams. Watch out for the Andy Dalton revenge game.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers -2.5
Both of these teams have good coaches. I’ve underestimated them both at different times this season. The Packers are still starting a backup QB and the Vikings are looking nasty, but this is a division rival game in Green Bay. I’m going to steer clear of this one.

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens -2.5
The Ravens avoided a 0-3 start by going into Dallas and taking care of business. Of course for being a team with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry they seem to struggle to run down the clock with a lead. The Bills have steamrolled everyone they’ve played so far, but Baltimore is maybe good again. 🤷‍♂️

Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions -3.5
The Seahawks are sitting at 3-0. The Detroit Lions are 2-1, albeit not in the prettiest fashion so far. That said I’m not ready to take the Seahawks as a road dog against a team that made the NFC Championship last year.

Games to Consider

Dallas Cowboys -5.5 at New York Giants
I don’t usually like to pick Thursday games. I like to keep my hopes up longer into the week. That said I think Dallas should go on the road and handle the Giants. They’re the better team on paper. Though Malik Nabers is looking awesome and a big game leading to a win could really turn up the heat on Mike McCarthy’s seat.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans -6.5
The Texans will need to bounce back after being dismantled by Minnesota last week. Minnesota does seem like a contender through 3 weeks though. The Jaguars meanwhile went in and got demolished by the Bills on Monday night. Luckily there was a second Monday night game so we had something to watch in the second half. I expect the Texans to put the pressure on their division rival and send the Jaguars to 0-4.

New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers -10.5
This is your biggest spread of the week. We’ve seen how that has performed so far this year. The Bengals had the honor in week 1, the Ravens in week 2, and the Bengals again in week 3. Still the 49ers have the largest split of the year this week and should take care of business at home. But I’ve been wrong before.

Denver Broncos at New York Jets -7.5
The Broncos surprised Tampa Bay last week and ran away with a win. I don’t know that Bo Nix is going to have the same offensive success against the New York Jets defense. I also expect Rodgers to build upon his week 3 performance and maybe even give Robert Saleh and awkward hug this time.

My Pick

Now is the time I make my choice. Based on historical data you likely are going to want to fade this team very hard.

I’m sorry Houston fans. I’m going with the Texans.